← Claims

Missed deadline Promise · Medium confidence

The latest NSO survey (2018-19) put average monthly income per agricultural household at Rs 10,218, well short of a doubling of the 2015-16 baseline, and no official post-2019 figure showing doubling has been published.

Test case in Suite B · score 0.25

English · ParaphrasedFarmers' income should double by 2022, the 75th year of India's independence (paraphrase of the PM's stated aim at the rally and in his posted tweets).

Paraphrased from news reports; not a verbatim quote.

Speaker

Narendra Modi

Party

BJP

Office

Prime Minister

Venue

Kisan rally, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh

Date

2016-02-28

Deadline

2022-12-31

Topics

agriculture, income

Researched by

claude-sonnet

Transcript / text sources

• PM Modi addresses a farmers rally in Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh (narendramodi.in)

Evidence

The data

Average monthly income per agricultural household (Rs per month (nominal)) — Source: NSO / MoSPI, Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households (70th and 77th rounds); 2015-16 is the DFI Committee estimate. Target: 16118 (2x of 2015-16 baseline (Rs 8,059/month, 2015-16 prices)). 2015-16 is a committee estimate (Rs 96,703/yr) derived from 2012-13 data, per Scroll and Down To Earth, not a survey result. Rounds are not strictly comparable. Nominal values; target line is 2x of the 2015-16 baseline.

Government's response

Analysis

The Bareilly rally of 28 February 2016 and the Budget 2016-17 speech (reported as 'double farmers' income' in five years or by 2022) set the aim. The Dalwai Committee estimated 2015-16 average income at Rs 96,703 a year (about Rs 8,059 a month) and said about 10.4% annual real growth was needed.

The NSO's 77th-round survey (2018-19) found Rs 10,218 a month, about 27% above the 2015-16 estimate in nominal terms over three years. Commentators estimate real farm income growth well under the required pace. The survey compares different survey rounds and years, so the comparison is approximate. No later NSO round with comparable figures was found.

The government says incomes more than doubled but has published no national figures to support this; it cited recall-based success stories.

Confidence in verdict & review

Confidence in verdict

Medium

Review status

draft

Last reviewed

2026-10-17

Notes

Exact Hindi wording not retrieved (narendramodi.in page timed out on direct fetch; content known from search snippet). Budget speech wording unverified: reports say 'five years' (Al Jazeera) and 'by 2022' (Taxheal/Plastemart); official text on indiabudget.gov.in not fetched. No video found. Parliament PDF on rsdebate.nic.in redirected; Standing Committee report not read directly. Chart target uses 2x of Rs 8,059 in 2015-16 prices; the DTE inflation-adjusted figure (Rs 21,146) is in 2022-23 prices, and Scroll quotes 192,694/yr, so figures differ slightly by source. 2018-19 value is nominal.